Schadelijke kantelpunten in de natuurlijke wereld bedreigen de mensheid door levensondersteuningssystemen en maatschappelijke stabiliteit te verstoren. De effecten van kantelpunten zullen worden overgedragen en versterkt in onze geglobaliseerde wereld. Om deze risico's te beperken, moeten we ons concentreren op positieve kantelpunten - kansen waarbij gunstige veranderingen zelfvoorzienend worden. De geschiedenis toont aan dat snelle maatschappelijke verschuivingen mogelijk zijn.
Harmful tipping points in the natural world threaten humanity by disrupting life support systems and societal stability. The effects of tipping points will be transmitted and amplified throughout our globalised world. To mitigate these risks, we should focus on positive tipping points—opportunities where beneficial changes become self-sustaining. History shows rapid societal shifts are possible.
The global economy could face a 50% loss in GDP between 2070 and 2090 unless immediate policy action on risks posed by the climate crisis is taken, warns a new report by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) and University of Exeter.
The clear signs of human-induced climate change reached new heights in 2024, which was likely the first calendar year to be more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial era, with a global mean near-surface temperature of 1.55 ± 0.13 °C above the 1850-1900 average.
This is the warmest year in the 175-year observational record. The State of the Global Climate 2024 report underlined the massive economic and social upheavals from extreme weather and the long-term impacts of record ocean heat and sea-level rise.
The longer our home remains aflame, the harder and more expensive it will be to extinguish the fire and repair the damage.
Delaying climate action will inevitably increase the negative impacts that the world will experience due to climate change. Continued inaction will make achieving the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement more and more costly, and eventually, completely out of reach.
What could a sustainable Dutch agricultural and food system look like? We developed a quantitative future scenario for 2030-2035 using the Agri-food-nature Transition Model (ATM) (Dutch report).
The world is on track to increase global warming by 3°C by 2100, which according to our research will reduce cumulative economic output by 15% to 34%.
Alternatively, investing only 1% to 2% of global GDP by 2100 would limit warming to below 2°C and enable the world to adapt to most—but not all—of the consequences.
The net cost of inaction—the cost of climate change less the cost of climate action—is 11% to 27% of cumulative GDP. The average of that range could fund numerous global priorities, including addressing global health challenges or investing in defense.